Dante Fowler among 10 breakout candidates for 2017
Fresh stars and household names are made every season in the NFL.
Here’s a look at 10 players who are primed to make a name for themselves with a good 2017 season.
1. Laremy Tunsil, OT, Dolphins
Tunsil is a monster. He had up-and-down moments early in his Dolphins career, shifting inside to guard from his more natural spot at left tackle. But he flashed the attributes that will make him one of the league’s best linemen for the next decade.
He makes everything look simple, boiling down line play to the most basic philosophy: the lowest man with inside hands typically wins. His power and movement skills are what bring the “wow” moments. And they’re a perfect fit in Adam Gase’s inside/outside-zone based running attack.
At guard — a position he’s never played before — he had dominant displays in the run game. His in-line power is scary. He punches open holes by himself, using his massive mitts to overpower the best interior defenders.
He needs to pick up subtleties of the run game, though. He picked up nuances of combination blocks when lining up inside — sealing an initial defender before climbing up the second level. But his understanding of leverage — where and when he needs to angle his body — needs to improve.
It was much the same in pass protection. He played with great effort and had some outstanding games. But there were struggles; he just couldn’t sink well enough to stonewall certain pass rushers.
How he learns to handle elite speed rushers flying off the edge will be crucial to his transition outside. The big question: Is he twitchy enough to keep up? He has the explosiveness to kick out, but at times he can struggle to reset when rushers dart inside.
A lot of it is a balance and technique issue. In college, he could get away with being a superior athlete to most of the guys lining up opposite him. He would overpower inferior players, even if his technique was less than stellar. There’s no such free pass in the pros. Tunsil’s sloppy footwork was concealed when he was playing at such close quarters inside. It’s tough to hide outside.
Week 4 vs. the Bengals gave us a glimpse at what could be. There were stretches of dominance. Then, a lack of concentration, sloppy footwork and all of a sudden a defender was sitting in Ryan Tannehill’s lap.
On the above play, Tunsil’s base was poor. He slid out to cut off a speed move and he over set. His feet were too wide, making his base unstable, allowing the pass rusher to drive through the middle of his chest.
Figuring out those nuances can only come with more reps — shifting between techniques inside and outside will not have helped during his rookie year.
If he brings it every snap, making sure his technique and effort are on point, Tunsil will live up to his pre-draft expectations and be special.
2. Su’a Cravens, S/LB, Redskins
There’s no player I’m more excited to see develop in 2017 than Cravens. His skill-set is an embodiment of where defenses are going — finding a bunch of players who can line up in multiple spots to help combat the historic levels of pre-snap movement across the league.
Cravens lined up predominantly as a linebacker in 2016. It wasn’t all good, but when he flashed he really flashed.
The star potential is there. I liken it to Tyrann Mathieu. They don’t play a similar game. But like Mathieu, Cravens can make a play at any spot on the field: arriving in the backfield, patrolling the middle of the field as a safety, roaming sideline-to-sideline as a linebacker and allowing his defensive coordinator to get all kinds of creative.
He will move back to safety next season. Well, he will be listed as a safety. In reality, it’s likely that his position will be fluid. The Redskins are slated to start D.J. Swearinger at the other safety spot, another player whose better rotating toward the line of scrimmage. Swearinger can hold OK as a traditional middle-of-the-field safety in spots, but not in a full-time role.
It’s the same for Cravens. Want to move other pieces around to disguise a look and slide Cravens into the middle of the field? Fine. But to have him line up there down in and down out makes little sense. His lack of fluidity would be an issue, and it would limit his ability to get downhill and make plays.
It’s tough to see how Swearinger and Cravens co-exist without the ‘Skins playing a vast amount of “big nickel” — three safeties on the field together.
That’s where things can get creative and exciting. With a true free safety on the field — likely to be Will Blackmon — Swearinger and Cravens would get a wider berth to rotate toward the line of scrimmage; blitzing, masking coverages or simply as a function of pattern-match coverage principles. They could both come. One could come. Or, neither of them could rotate down. The different possibilities would give an opposing quarterback more to process before he decided to sling the ball.
3. Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants
Barring injuries, the Giants’ receiving corps looks as good as any in the league: Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. Someone is going to have space, particularly with defenses doubling up on Beckham.
I’m not convinced that Marshall will be at his All-Pro best, but if he’s just a solid, league-average receiver, opposing defenses will be forced to play with two-deep safeties. That’s going to give Shepard plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities to do damage out of the slot.
4. Dante Fowler, Edge, Jaguars
Fowler’s first couple of seasons in the league have been a disappointment. His rookie year was wiped out by a torn left ACL suffered during his first practice with the Jags. And his second year failed to deliver the kind of performance the organization was hoping for from the former third overall pick.
Draft a pass rusher in the top five and the team expects double-digit sacks and game-changing plays. Right away. There’s no waiting time.
Fowler’s production didn’t match expectations last season. But there were signs that he’s heading in the right direction.
Although he finished the season with only 4 sacks, Fowler racked up 27.5 pressures, per Football Outsiders. That was good for 28thin the league, ahead of Chandler Jones, Shane Ray and Leonard Williams.
Fowler feasted in the Jags’ stunt packages, where his speed skating style and ridiculous speed-to-power moves allowed him to beat guards and centers to their spots before they could reset and figure out where on earth he was.
It reminded me of Vic Beasley. The Falcons’ pass rusher is a talented player, and an extraordinary athlete. Most of his success comes on stunts and twists, with his athleticism built into the play design and giving him an advantage over playing a top-tier lineman straight up. Beasley had 4 sacks in his rookie year. That number ballooned to 15.5 in 2016.
Dan Quinn figured out how to harness Beasley’s potential: The defense used more gap exchanges than any team in the league.
Last season was effectively Fowler’s rookie year. Put in the right spot, his production could sky rocket, as well.
How he’s used will be vital. Fowler needs to be “more than a great athlete” according to Jags head coach Doug Marrone. It’s also on the staff to take that great athlete and fit him into a system that takes advantage of his lethal quickness.
Jacksonville’s previously incompetent regime failed to utilize the talent at its disposal. Fowler regularly beat guys slithering inside, yet stunting, twisting and slanting were not huge parts of the defensive scheme. They should have been racking up Falcons-like numbers.
Fowler and interior lineman Sen’drick Marks work well together. Marks is a classic penetrator. He’s power, effort and snarling rage. Sometimes he’s just unblockable 1-on-1.
On the above play, Marks got across the face of the guard. The right tackle panicked, seeing Marks flash into his vision. He peeled off Fowler, and helped to his left. The guard, who got whipped, failed to pass off Marks and reset to go hunt for the edge rusher. Fowler careened in, descending through the vacated space and crushing the quarterback.
It should only get better in 2017. Malik Jackson is a quick-twitch interior rusher who, although he wants to hit quarterbacks himself, will excel in a role that asks him to whip across linemen’s face and open up holes for others. Then there’s Calais Campbell, Jacksonville’s big offseason acquisition. The former Cardinal is an all-world everything.
Fowler is in the perfect spot to succeed. If not now, it will likely be never.
5. Shaq Thompson, LB, Panthers
Thompson is already an impactful player, but I expect him to take another leap in 2017 as the Panthers undergo defensive tweaks.Thompson is a cheat code for new Panthers’ defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. He allows Carolina to run few packages, irrespective of the offensive formation or any kind of pre-snap movement. Thompson can slide to any spot on the field and fill in where needed: off-ball, on-ball, as a safety, or, in a pinch, in the slot.
He represents exactly what teams are looking for in modern linebackers. And he will be a quality long-term replacement for Thomas Davis, who has to show some signs of decline at some point (right?).
Thompson, like all of the Panthers’ linebackers, is always buzzing around the ball. His take-on skills can improve, but he fits what Carolina asks its linebackers to do in nickel: sit in zones, read the game and buzz to the ball.
6. David Onyemata, DL, Saints
Onyemata’s growth will be fascinating. He’s relatively new to the sport, and has spent one year in a true strength and conditioning program.
Surprisingly, he featured in nearly 40 percent of the Saints’ defensive snaps during his rookie year. He profiles mostly as a two-down guy, but continues to develop as a player who can give extra oomph against the pass. His job is to do the dirty work; muddy things up and make life easier for Cameron Jordan and New Orleans’ other pass rushers.
7. D.J. Humphries, OT, Cardinals
Early days in the league have not been kind to the Cardinals tackle. He was redshirted for a year, battled injuries and has had embarrassing moments become social media fodder.
Here’s the sneaky thing, though: He’s had some fantastic moments, too.
Humphries will flip over to left tackle in 2017, with a battle set to go under way for his former spot on the right side. It’s not a popular opinion, but I think he has a chance to be solid, if not downright good.
Pass protection has been the big cause for concern. Humphries has a gigantic body, but nimble feet. That’s how you wind up being a first-round pick, technique be damned.
Put him 1-on-1 with a pass rusher and he can hold his own. Even against the very best. But throw something funky his way, challenging his awareness, and too often he looks lost. He picks things up too late when faced with a funky look — even ones as simplistic as having a linebacker walk down.
And there are other technical issues. He doesn’t always transfer his power to the tips of his extend-o arms to keep pass rushers at bay. Too often he dangles his hands, gifting pass rushers enough time to scoff as they nonchalantly throw them away.
But the talent is wrapped up in that All-Pro body. Planting him on an island at left tackle and letting him go to work will likely be best for him. As long as he learns to pick up basic stunts and twists.
His gifts in the run game are already well-rounded, however. In coach parlance: He’s a people mover. And he does a good job with the intricacies of zone blocking (something he had close to perfected when in school at Florida). Seal, climb, find, flip the hips and open up a lane for the running back. Humphries can make it look straightforward.
8. Maurice Alexander, S, Rams
Mo-Al is going to see an explosion in production thanks to the addition of Wade Phillips.
Phillips’ system is well known for its different styles of pressures (which essentially amount to four-man rushes out of a traditional 4–3 look — with one end stood up to give a 3–4 impression). But while it’s simple up front, it gets more complex on the back-end and at the second level.
Phillips utilizes a ton of green-dog blitzes. Linebackers, box safeties and rotating safeties are given options. If the guy they’re slated to cover stays in to block, they blitz — wherever they deem necessary, not just attacking that blocker. It puts the most stress on a safety who is rotating toward the line of scrimmage.
That’s likely to be Alexander now that Lamarcus Joyner is moving to safety. Alexander, who’s shown he can vacillate comfortably between playing closer to the line of scrimmage or sitting in the middle third of the field, will become a key play maker among Phillips’ pressure packages.
Alexander’s production will begin to match his tape. He will be a stud in 2017 and beyond.
9. Jatavis Brown, LB, Chargers
Brown may not be a household name — he was a fifth-round pick in 2016 — but he was one of the best linebackers in the league during his rookie season.
The Chargers’ crowded linebacker room meant he only saw 56 percent of the team’s defensive snaps. But he’s cemented his place as the Chargers go-to ‘backer, regardless of down or distance ahead of bigger investments like Denzel Perryman (a second-round pick in 2015) and Manti Te’o (a second-round pick in 2013 who was let go this offseason).
Perriman is a more refined player against the run. But Brown’s athleticism — straight line speed and change of direction — make him a force against the pass. His lack of size is why he fell to the fifth round of the draft. Teams were unsure whether he could hold up in base defense or not. Well, given that two downs are almost exclusively passing downs, that notion has proven to be silly.
It’s not like he gets washed out of the run game, either. He isn’t strong at the point-of-attack, but he works hard and has a good nose for the ball.
The Perriman-Brown pairing is similar to the Luke Kuechly-Davis one that has been so dominant in Carolina. They will quickly be considered one of the best nickel tandems in the league.
10. Ramik Wilson, LB, Chiefs
Meet one of the NFL’s most explosive hitters. Wilson is exciting. He’s a violent, downhill linebacker, who flies across the field with reckless abandon — seeking as many heads as possible.
He played almost every game for the Chiefs following Week 8 of last season. And while there were concerns about his diagnose-and-attack instincts and three-down capability, he answered each charge with one excellent performance after another.
His three-down skills are vital. He struggled against bigger tight ends in man-to-man coverage. But he showed he’s a quality zone defender: reading, reacting and firing.
Wilson is prone to mental errors. He undercuts too many blocks and every now and then he will be left wandering around as though he’s the kid in the playground who just discovered the sky and is amazed by its wonderment.
However, he’s a difference maker on all-three downs.
Derrick Johnson’s days in Kansas City are winding down. Wilson will be a superb replacement.
Originally published at www.all22.com on June 16, 2017.
